IDC: Nintendo Wii To Outsell PS3, Xbox 360 Thru 2008
Published by William Fletcher March 1st, 2007 in Nintendo, Microsoft, Xbox 360, Sony, PlayStation 3, Wii.
According to IDC, Wii is going to be the top selling console, topping both Xbox 360 and PS3, for at least 2007 and 2008. Considering how Nintendo Wii sales have been going since launch, it doesn’t seem like a particularly risky prediction to make these days.
The release from IDC follows.
Now that Microsoft, Sony, and Nintendo all have their videogame consoles in the market, the transitional phase of the console cycle is in full effect as each vendor has entered the game. What is interesting about this particular generation of gaming manufacturers is that each vendor has clearly differentiated hardware and strategies. Who will win? IDC says none of the three new consoles will dominate the market in the next five years like the PS2 dominated last cycle; however, Nintendo’s Wii will outship and outsell the 360 and PS3 in 2007 and 2008.
IDC says Microsoft’s Xbox 360 was the best selling current generation console for 2006 because it enjoyed a full year lead in the market. Microsoft is relishing in the PS3’s launch slip-ups, where PS3 supply deficits diminished profits. The battle is heating up between the 360 and PS3, as the two gaming manufacturers target the same hardcore/enthusiast gamer to dominate the market.
Nintendo, on the other hand, is the only one of the three manufacturers working to grow its total accessible market for its hardware and software by broadening its audience beyond the traditional market. Nintendo has designed its latest hardware and software to be more inviting and fun, and less intimidating for non-gamers including those who may never self-identify as a gamer. Nintendo also enjoys support from the fan base it has captured with successful first party franchises. IDC believes hardware shipments of Nintendo’s Wii will capture a little more than a third of the worldwide market by 2008, rising slightly above Sony’s PS3 and Microsoft’s Xbox 360.
“With the Wii, Nintendo is abdicating the specification war, leaving Sony and Microsoft to slug it out between themselves for the hardcore market,” says Billy Pidgeon, program manager of IDC’s Consumer Markets: Gaming program. “We believe concerted efforts to broaden the appeal of videogames beyond the traditional enthusiast/hardcore base will deepen the industry’s penetration. This is good news for an industry that seemed to be receding last year due to over-saturation of the core base.”
I think the Wii is a fad, a lot of these so called non gamers may buy it, however if I am a software devloper I would not plan on them buying a lot of games like a hardcore gamer. I would still expect hardcore gamers to buy more games on the Xbox360 and PS3.
u crazy!!!
what are u talking about wii isnt for harcore gamers. Why do you think its so hard to find a wii? because everybody is camping out or preordering it. (even today) if you are not a hardcore gamer, then u thing this people would camp out? NO. They would wait till its available. And if they were’nt a harcore gamer, then their soon to be one, because of its inovation. Think about it. Maybe some people buy a ps3 just for bluray and maybe some people just buy the 360 for HD. Now on the wii, you only get games, because the wii is for GAMERS.
peace
You forget that the Wii also has a hardcore fan base, one that has existed since the 80’s. Now if the Wii can bring back those ‘lapsed’ gamers, which it has been doing, then that hardcore base only gets bigger.
Plus you forget that alot of these 360 and PS3 owners also bought or are gonna buy a Wii. You would have to be an idiot not to develop for Wii.
I understand that Nintendo has a fan base, I believe it to be smaller than the XBOX/Playstation crowd. Hardcore gamers will by both systems that is my point. I think the people who buy the Wii only are going to be a more casual gamer who buys less games. I think some who can spend 600 or more for a game system is likely to spend more money on games.
Hardcore gamers that have multiple systems would buy it on the system that offers the best game play for the money. I believe after awhile many of these gamers will not find the Wiimote as unique and decide graphice may be a better selling point. I think over time more people would prefer playing COD3 on XBOX360 and PS3. Especially as more people get HDTVs. COD3 looks great on a PS3 with a 65 HDTV. However, sports games on the Wii are fun, but Nintendo seems to understand this market better than other developers. I think when there are more games out there these developers will not sell as many games on the Wii. Nintendo will continue to innovate, but that is Nintendo.
When I talk about hardcore gamers, I am referring to the hardcore gamers exclusive to the Wii. There are not as many as the other systems. These new casual gamers that are playing the Wii, how many games do you think they will buy compared to the hardcore gamer?
I agree with Rick.
I’m one of those “lapsed” gamers who used to play in the eighties, played in the nineties… and then stopped buying consoles and games because of the reduction in ground-breaking and original games.
How many more goddamned First Person WW2 shooters do we need? How many more Halo clones? how many more recruitment pieces for the American armed forces have to be released as games before the industry tanks completely?
The Wii controller is a fad… but not all fads simply disappear. Atari called the NES gamepad a fan when it replaced the old single button joysticks. The same was said about the analog stick on the N64 controller until both Sony and Sega adopted it. In each of those cases, controller innovations represented fads that continued on to improve overall gameplay by one step. The never completely replaced the older styles… joysticks are still preferred for 2D fighters, gamepads are still the most efficient for 2D Shootemups, and analog sticks are definitely the best control scheme for any game character moving through a 3D environment. Even Link’s movement in Twilight Princess is controlled with the analog stick on the nunchuck!
What the Wii-mote does, however, is add a whole new component to gameplay which can be used by developers… or not. If Nintendo was banking on it completely, they wouldn’t have bothered producing the nun-chuck or the classic controller.
I think we’ll see developers find some really creative ways to work the wii-mote into future control schemes in ways that don’t seem more intuitive than gimicky. That won’t happen over night however… it’ll take a while for the novelty to wear off before developers are pushed to come up with even more creative ways to include it.
The history of the industry shows, however, that new major control schemes are always adopted and integrated into games alongside old ones. Rarely does the industry ever go back in time.
I say “major” control schemes, because it’s important not to put the wii-mote into the same category as a peripherals like the power glove. The power glove never, ever came anywhere close to establishing a user-base on par with what the Wii has in just a couple short months.
Ok… point understood
But Think about it this way.
Sony’s playstation sold over 190 million ps2’s and still selling. How many out of that 190 million do u think is harcore gamers. I have nothing against microsoft or sony. I have ps2 xbox wii ps3 and gamecube. Each systeme has its own unique funcion. I just have a lot more fun with the wii, dont know if you heard of it but theres a thing on the wii called a msg board which kinda acts like msn. Theres also a photo channel, mii channel, shop channel, internet channel, everybody votes channel, forcast channel and news channel. Damm the wii even stay on stadby when your not playing. Dont get me wrong, the ps3 has the most amizing graphics ive EVER seen. Children this days only think of graphics, and thats probably why the ps2 sold 190m units xbox 59m units and gamecube 19m units. When the ps3 and 360 lower their prices down, then thats when their consoles will sell. Nintendo’s strategy is working pretty well.
And for the wiimote…
The wiimote is what you can call next gen. Its interactive and fun. The ps3 doesnt use the sixaxsis control to the full limits to thier games. If the wii continues at this pase, then developers surely will make games for the wii till the end.
Look Philip i dont know if The Wii is a fad or not.
All i know is that its fun, and it sells like fresh bread.
I know it costs millions more to develop a game for 360 and PS3 than for Wii. I know that selling a game for Wii is more profitable for the developer. Therefor, it seems pretty stupid to me that developers would stop developing for Wii.
On the contrary, I think they’re gonna ride that wave all the way. I know that Nintendo has some of the best selling games in history, and people buy nintendo systems for that reason.
The Wii is different. It appeals to the impulse-buy nintendo fans, the ‘lapsed’ nintendo gamers, and the non-gamers. It sells to a wider audience than 360 and PS3, and that includes, kids, women, senior citizens.
All in all you could say that the combined game purchases of Wii hardcore gamers, casual gamers, and new gamers would probably be around the same numbers as 360 and PS3, maybe more.
The more popular the system the more likely developers will develop for it.
Thats why your statement doesn’t make sense to me.
And I also know that come Metroid Prime 3 you will probably buy one too, thats if you dont have one already. But good luck finding one.